Tokenization will create a new class of alternative assets

Maciej Zieliński

18 Jan 2021
Tokenization will create a new class of alternative assets

We have already covered the tokenization of companies and real estate extensively on the blog. We can also apply similar solutions to alternative assets. Why does it even make sense to tokenize cars, works of art or wine? 

The need for portfolio diversification and the comfort that comes with owning uncorrelated assets are nothing new in the investment world. But it is in times of market stress that their role becomes particularly important. Just look at last summer's record gold price. Alternative assets, however, have far more faces than just metals and precious stones. Cars, art or exclusive liquors not only satisfy people's whims, but can also turn out to be a safe deposit of funds and even bring profits from investments. Why is it worth tokenising them?

Tokenisation of cars

Exotic cars have played an important role in the world of digital content for years. However, anyone who thinks that their only use is to highlight the owner's status is mistaken. Research shows that they can be an extremely worthy investment alternative. According to a Knight Frank report, investment in vintage cars returned over 330% in the 10 years to 2017. Far outperforming other alternative assets such as diamonds, jewellery and art in this regard. However, for obvious reasons, not everyone can afford it. Such a car remains simply too expensive for most. But what if we could only acquire part of it? 

CT1, which is the result of a collaboration between investment platform CurioInvest and digital asset exchange MERJ Exchange, is one of the latest tokens whose value is secured by collector cars. According to both companies, it is the tokenization of luxury goods that will make them accessible to a wider range of investors. 

" If we look at works of art or collector cars we see that they have historically been seen as safe havens for investment, " says Fernando Verboonen, founder and CEO of CurioInvest. " Today they are held by very few. By introducing new technology, we are enabling everyone to fully benefit from the features and functions that define this asset class as a whole."

An investment for everyone

Last year, companies released 1.1 million tokens secured by the $1.1 million Ferarri F12TDF CTI. For less than 4 zlotys we could become shareholders in a supercar worth almost 4 million, whose value in the coming years will probably only increase. The project assumes tokenization of as many as 500 collector cars with a total value of over 200 million dollars. The machines are to be stored and maintained in a garage owned by CurioInvest in Stuttgart. When buying tokens, we do not have to worry about their transport or maintenance. 

Currently, one of the main problems in the secondary sale of exotic cars is the multitude of diverse and complex price models. Often, due to the lack of standardisation and regional differences, no one is able to determine how much a model is really worth. By harnessing the potential of blockchain technology, tokenization will allow the current market value to be adjusted in real time. This will create a number of new opportunities and simplifications, especially in the insurance industry, where it is necessary to accurately determine the value of a car. 

Art

In 2018, sales on the global art market reached $67 billion. Which represents an increase of 6.3% over 2017 and 12% over 2016. For years, post-war and contemporary art has remained the most important sector in terms of value. Over the past 20 years, works from these periods have produced a compound annual return (CAR) that exceeds the S&P's total return by 10.7%. However, the growing art market remains highly illiquid and, like collector cars, accessible only to a limited number of wealthy individuals and institutions. 

Several token projects have recently emerged that seek to change this. The first of these, Maecenas, in 2018 began tokenizing artworks by launching the groundbreaking work of American pop art pioneer Andy Warhol - '14 Little Electric Chairs'.  By basing the sale on blockchain, it was able to attract hundreds of investors previously unconnected to the art world, helping to increase the valuation of the work from $1.7 million to $5.6 million. 

Tokenization significantly increases the liquidity of investment in art - we are trading tokens, only "part" of the work, so we do not have to look for a buyer for the whole. It can also bring numerous benefits to the artist himself. If the artist decides to tokenize his work, he will both earn from the sale of part of the tokens and retain a stake in the whole, allowing him to profit from the increase in value of his work.

Tokenisation of collector wines

Investing in wine for the uninitiated may sound like a weak joke. Nothing could be further from the truth. Collectible wines, as investment assets, are characterised by a high rate of return and significant resistance to economic fluctuations. While the truthfulness of the statement that the older the wine the better is limited - once it reaches full maturity, the quality starts to decrease, there is no doubt that the price of rare examples increases over time.

Source: liv-ex.com

There are a number of factors that guarantee the constancy of this trend. First of all, connoisseurs consider the grape harvest vintage as a factor defining the characteristics of individual bottles, and this vintage is unique - there will not be another 1945 or 2010. 

The growing value of the land on which grapes are grown is also of no small importance. The average price of a hectare of vineyard in the famous Champagne exceeds 1 million euros, which is still a modest amount compared to the 15 million you have to pay for the best Grand Cru in Burgundy. Often, within just one hilltop, there are several parcels with different growing conditions. The differences between them may seem insignificant to the layman, but to the connoisseur they are often colossal. For example, the fruit for the auction record-breaking Domaine de la Romanée-Conti La Romanée Conticomes from a plot of just 1.81 hectares. Demand for rare wines continues to grow (largely due to growing interest in China) while the number of prestigious plots is limited and fixed.

In addition, ongoing climate change and the associated rise in temperature are forcing winemakers in particular regions (e.g. Bordeaux) to change their production processes and even the style of their finished products, potentially increasing the value of older vintages.

Does good wine have to be expensive? 

When it comes to wines that have investment potential this statement is unfortunately completely true. Only about 5% of the wines produced are suitable for ageing, and among these only a small proportion is of real interest to collectors. Of course, it pays to invest not only in the most expensive labels. A few hundred dollars for a bottle of wine, whose price may increase even 4 times over time, does not necessarily sound like an insurmountable barrier for the average investor. It should be remembered, however, that such wine cannot simply be placed on a shelf and wait until its market value increases. Proper storage is key. Temperature, humidity and even lighting - all these determine whether the beverage will actually mature over time and acquire new qualities, or simply spoil. 

Unfortunately, the prices of specialised refrigerators, suitable for storing collectible wines, start at several thousand dollars. Buying and maintaining such equipment with only one bottle in mind simply does not make sense. Not everyone has enough space at their disposal, either. Moreover, wine trading, due to numerous legal restrictions (wine is, after all, an alcoholic beverage), is rarely conducted in the peer-to-peer model, which significantly complicates the matter of its sale by an independent investor. As a result, investments in wine collectors, despite numerous advantages, remain so far closed to a narrow group of people and institutions. As in the case of antique cars and art, this problem can be solved with tokenization.

Tokens as a breakthrough for the industry

When buying tokens whose value would be secured by wine, we would not have to worry about storing the bottles. They would be kept in refrigerators or entire special cellars of the token distributor, just like cars in the garages of the aforementioned CurioInvest. Furthermore, tokenization would significantly increase liquidity in the collectible wine market. When buying wine in the traditional way, we in a way freeze our funds. It often takes years for the value of wine to rise, and even when we decide to liquidate our investments, we have no guarantee that we will find a buyer for our bottle right away. Tokens would be free from such restrictions, we could sell them at any time, without worrying about the cost and risk of transport (bottles are made of glass!) or looking for someone willing to buy the whole wine. 

Source: The World of Fine Wine

Projects distributing such tokens are already emerging. One of them is Vinsent, which, thanks to tokenization, makes it possible to buy cases of wine while it is still in the initial stages of production. The market for exclusive wine during a coronavirus pandemic is characterised by much lower volatility than global stock markets. And as this coincides with a renewed interest in blockchain technology we can expect more similar projects to emerge in the near future.

Where will the tokenization of alternative assets take us?

The tokenization of cars, art or wine does not sound so exotic if we look at already existing projects that have taken even less typical assets for a spin. Take SardineCoin, for example, a token offered by Luxembourg-based MY Sardines, whose value is secured by tinned sardines. The company is banking on the durability and ease of storage of the canned fish, which it says can last for hundreds of years as a collector's item. All indications are that all the possible uses of this technology will be explored for a long time to come. Of course, not every tokenization idea is doomed to success. Not only the characteristics of the assets themselves, but above all the quality of the technological solutions used have a determining influence on the end result. 

Do you have your own idea for a tokenization project? Get in touch with our team of experts who will certainly be able to help you. 

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Monte Carlo Simulations in Tokenomics

Kajetan Olas

01 May 2024
Monte Carlo Simulations in Tokenomics

As the web3 field grows in complexity, traditional analytical tools often fall short in capturing the dynamics of digital markets. This is where Monte Carlo simulations come into play, offering a mathematical technique to model systems fraught with uncertainty.

Monte Carlo simulations employ random sampling to understand probable outcomes in processes that are too complex for straightforward analytic solutions. By simulating thousands, or even millions, of scenarios, Monte Carlo methods can provide insights into the likelihood of different outcomes, helping stakeholders make informed decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

In this article, we will explore the role of Monte Carlo simulations within the context of tokenomics.  illustrating how they are employed to forecast market dynamics, assess risk, and optimize strategies in the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies. By integrating this powerful tool, businesses and investors can enhance their analytical capabilities, paving the way for more resilient and adaptable economic models in the digital age.

Understanding Monte Carlo Simulations

The Monte Carlo method is an approach to solving problems that involve random sampling to understand probable outcomes. This technique was first developed in the 1940s by scientists working on the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project. The method was designed to simplify the complex simulations of neutron diffusion, but it has since evolved to address a broad spectrum of problems across various fields including finance, engineering, and research.

Random Sampling and Statistical Experimentation

At the heart of Monte Carlo simulations is the concept of random sampling from a probability distribution to compute results. This method does not seek a singular precise answer but rather a probability distribution of possible outcomes. By performing a large number of trials with random variables, these simulations mimic the real-life fluctuations and uncertainties inherent in complex systems.

Role of Randomness and Probability Distributions in Simulations

Monte Carlo simulations leverage the power of probability distributions to model potential scenarios in processes where exact outcomes cannot be determined due to uncertainty. Each simulation iteration uses randomly generated values that follow a specific statistical distribution to model different outcomes. This method allows analysts to quantify and visualize the probability of different scenarios occurring.

The strength of Monte Carlo simulations lies in the insight they offer into potential risks. They allow modelers to see into the probabilistic "what-if" scenarios that more closely mimic real-world conditions.

Monte Carlo Simulations in Tokenomics

Monte Carlo simulations are instrumental tool for token engineers. They're so useful due to their ability to model emergent behaviors. Here are some key areas where these simulations are applied:

Pricing and Valuation of Tokens

Determining the value of a new token can be challenging due to the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets. Monte Carlo simulations help by modeling various market scenarios and price fluctuations over time, allowing analysts to estimate a token's potential future value under different conditions.

Assessing Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior

Cryptocurrency markets are influenced by a myriad of factors including regulatory changes, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment. Monte Carlo methods allow researchers to simulate these variables in an integrated environment to see how they might impact token economics, from overall market cap fluctuations to liquidity concerns.

Assesing Possible Risks

By running a large number of simulations it’s possible to stress-test the project in multiple scenarios and identify emergent risks. This is perhaps the most important function of Monte Carlo Process, since these risks can’t be assessed any other way.

Source: How to use Monte Carlo simulation for reliability analysis?

Benefits of Using Monte Carlo Simulations

By generating a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities, Monte Carlo simulations help decision-makers in the cryptocurrency space anticipate potential futures and make informed strategic choices. This capability is invaluable for planning token launches, managing supply mechanisms, and designing marketing strategies to optimize market penetration.

Using Monte Carlo simulations, stakeholders in the tokenomics field can not only understand and mitigate risks but also explore the potential impact of different strategic decisions. This predictive power supports more robust economic models and can lead to more stable and successful token launches. 

Implementing Monte Carlo Simulations

Several tools and software packages can facilitate the implementation of Monte Carlo simulations in tokenomics. One of the most notable is cadCAD, a Python library that provides a flexible and powerful environment for simulating complex systems. 

Overview of cadCAD configuration Components

To better understand how Monte Carlo simulations work in practice, let’s take a look at the cadCAD code snippet:

sim_config = {

    'T': range(200),  # number of timesteps

    'N': 3,           # number of Monte Carlo runs

    'M': params       # model parameters

}

Explanation of Simulation Configuration Components

T: Number of Time Steps

  • Definition: The 'T' parameter in CadCAD configurations specifies the number of time steps the simulation should execute. Each time step represents one iteration of the model, during which the system is updated. That update is based on various rules defined by token engineers in other parts of the code. For example: we might assume that one iteration = one day, and define data-based functions that predict token demand on that day.

N: Number of Monte Carlo Runs

  • Definition: The 'N' parameter sets the number of Monte Carlo runs. Each run represents a complete execution of the simulation from start to finish, using potentially different random seeds for each run. This is essential for capturing variability and understanding the distribution of possible outcomes. For example, we can acknowledge that token’s price will be correlated with the broad cryptocurrency market, which acts somewhat unpredictably.

M: Model Parameters

  • Definition: The 'M' key contains the model parameters, which are variables that influence system's behavior but do not change dynamically with each time step. These parameters can be constants or distributions that are used within the policy and update functions to model the external and internal factors affecting the system.

Importance of These Components

Together, these components define the skeleton of your Monte Carlo simulation in CadCAD. The combination of multiple time steps and Monte Carlo runs allows for a comprehensive exploration of the stochastic nature of the modeled system. By varying the number of timesteps (T) and runs (N), you can adjust the depth and breadth of the exploration, respectively. The parameters (M) provide the necessary context and ensure that each simulation is realistic.

Messy graph representing Monte Carlo simulation, source: Bitcoin Monte Carlo Simulation

Conclusion

Monte Carlo simulations represent a powerful analytical tool in the arsenal of token engineers. By leveraging the principles of statistics, these simulations provide deep insights into the complex dynamics of token-based systems. This method allows for a nuanced understanding of potential future scenarios and helps with making informed decisions.

We encourage all stakeholders in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space to consider implementing Monte Carlo simulations. The insights gained from such analytical techniques can lead to more effective and resilient economic models, paving the way for the sustainable growth and success of digital currencies.

If you're looking to create a robust tokenomics model and go through institutional-grade testing please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you with the token engineering process and ensure your project’s resilience in the long term.

FAQ

What is a Monte Carlo simulation in tokenomics context?

  • It's a mathematical method that uses random sampling to predict uncertain outcomes.

What are the benefits of using Monte Carlo simulations in tokenomics?

  • These simulations help foresee potential market scenarios, aiding in strategic planning and risk management for token launches.

Why are Monte Carlo simulations unique in cryptocurrency analysis?

  • They provide probabilistic outcomes rather than fixed predictions, effectively simulating real-world market variability and risk.

Behavioral Economics in Token Design

Kajetan Olas

22 Apr 2024
Behavioral Economics in Token Design

Behavioral economics is a field that explores the effects of psychological factors on economic decision-making. This branch of study is especially pertinent while designing a token since user perception can significantly impact a token's adoption.

We will delve into how token design choices, such as staking yields, token inflation, and lock-up periods, influence consumer behavior. Research studies reveal that the most significant factor for a token's attractiveness isn’t its functionality, but its past price performance. This underscores the impact of speculative factors. Tokens that have shown previous price increases are preferred over those with more beneficial economic features.

Understanding Behavioral Tokenomics

Understanding User Motivations

The design of a cryptocurrency token can significantly influence user behavior by leveraging common cognitive biases and decision-making processes. For instance, the concept of "scarcity" can create a perceived value increase, prompting users to buy or hold a token in anticipation of future gains. Similarly, "loss aversion," a foundational principle of behavioral economics, suggests that the pain of losing is psychologically more impactful than the pleasure of an equivalent gain. In token design, mechanisms that minimize perceived losses (e.g. anti-dumping measures) can encourage long-term holding.

Incentives and Rewards

Behavioral economics also provides insight into how incentives can be structured to maximize user participation. Cryptocurrencies often use tokens as a form of reward for various behaviors, including mining, staking, or participating in governance through voting. The way these rewards are framed and distributed can greatly affect their effectiveness. For example, offering tokens as rewards for achieving certain milestones can tap into the 'endowment effect,' where people ascribe more value to things simply because they own them.

Social Proof and Network Effects

Social proof, where individuals copy the behavior of others, plays a crucial role in the adoption of tokens. Tokens that are seen being used and promoted by influential figures within the community can quickly gain traction, as new users emulate successful investors. The network effect further amplifies this, where the value of a token increases as more people start using it. This can be seen in the rapid growth of tokens like Ethereum, where the broad adoption of its smart contract functionality created a snowball effect, attracting even more developers and users.

Token Utility and Behavioral Levers

The utility of a token—what it can be used for—is also crucial. Tokens designed to offer real-world applications beyond mere financial speculation can provide more stable value retention. Integrating behavioral economics into utility design involves creating tokens that not only serve practical purposes but also resonate on an emotional level with users, encouraging engagement and investment. For example, tokens that offer governance rights might appeal to users' desire for control and influence within a platform, encouraging them to hold rather than sell.

Understanding Behavioral Tokenomics

Intersection of Behavioral Economics and Tokenomics

Behavioral economics examines how psychological influences, various biases, and the way in which information is framed affect individual decisions. In tokenomics, these factors can significantly impact the success or failure of a cryptocurrency by influencing user behavior towards investment

Influence of Psychological Factors on Token Attraction

A recent study observed that the attractiveness of a token often hinges more on its historical price performance than on intrinsic benefits like yield returns or innovative economic models. This emphasizes the fact that the cryptocurrency sector is still young, and therefore subject to speculative behaviors

The Effect of Presentation and Context

Another interesting finding from the study is the impact of how tokens are presented. In scenarios where tokens are evaluated separately, the influence of their economic attributes on consumer decisions is minimal. However, when tokens are assessed side by side, these attributes become significantly more persuasive. This highlights the importance of context in economic decision-making—a core principle of behavioral economics. It’s easy to translate this into real-life example - just think about the concept of staking yields. When told that the yield on e.g. Cardano is 5% you might not think much of it. But, if you were simultaneously told that Anchor’s yield is 19%, then that 5% seems like a tragic deal.

Implications for Token Designers

The application of behavioral economics to the design of cryptocurrency tokens involves leveraging human psychology to encourage desired behaviors. Here are several core principles of behavioral economics and how they can be effectively utilized in token design:

Leveraging Price Performance

Studies show clearly: “price going up” tends to attract users more than most other token attributes. This finding implies that token designers need to focus on strategies that can showcase their economic effects in the form of price increases. This means that e.g. it would be more beneficial to conduct a buy-back program than to conduct an airdrop.

Scarcity and Perceived Value

Scarcity triggers a sense of urgency and increases perceived value. Cryptocurrency tokens can be designed to have a limited supply, mimicking the scarcity of resources like gold. This not only boosts the perceived rarity and value of the tokens but also drives demand due to the "fear of missing out" (FOMO). By setting a cap on the total number of tokens, developers can create a natural scarcity that may encourage early adoption and long-term holding.

Initial Supply Considerations

The initial supply represents the number of tokens that are available in circulation immediately following the token's launch. The chosen number can influence early market perceptions. For instance, a large initial supply might suggest a lower value per token, which could attract speculators. Data shows that tokens with low nominal value are highly volatile and generally underperform. Understanding how the initial supply can influence investor behavior is important for ensuring the token's stability.

Managing Maximum Supply and Inflation

A finite maximum supply can safeguard the token against inflation, potentially enhancing its value by ensuring scarcity. On the other hand, the inflation rate, which defines the pace at which new tokens are introduced, influences the token's value and user trust.

Investors in cryptocurrency markets show a notable aversion to deflationary tokenomics. Participants are less likely to invest in tokens with a deflationary framework, viewing them as riskier and potentially less profitable. Research suggests that while moderate inflation can be perceived neutrally or even positively, high inflation does not enhance attractiveness, and deflation is distinctly unfavorable.

Source: Behavioral Tokenomics: Consumer Perceptions of Cryptocurrency Token Design

These findings suggest that token designers should avoid high deflation rates, which could deter investment and user engagement. Instead, a balanced approach to inflation, avoiding extremes, appears to be preferred among cryptocurrency investors.

Loss Aversion

People tend to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains; this is known as loss aversion. In token design, this can be leveraged by introducing mechanisms that protect against losses, such as staking rewards that offer consistent returns or features that minimize price volatility. Additionally, creating tokens that users can "earn" through participation or contribution to the network can tap into this principle by making users feel they are safeguarding an investment or adding protective layers to their holdings.

Social Proof

Social proof is a powerful motivator in user adoption and engagement. When potential users see others adopting a token, especially influential figures or peers, they are more likely to perceive it as valuable and trustworthy. Integrating social proof into token marketing strategies, such as showcasing high-profile endorsements or community support, can significantly enhance user acquisition and retention.

Mental Accounting

Mental accounting involves how people categorize and treat money differently depending on its source or intended use. Tokens can be designed to encourage specific spending behaviors by being categorized for certain types of transactions—like tokens that are specifically for governance, others for staking, and others still for transaction fees. By distinguishing tokens in this way, users can more easily rationalize holding or spending them based on their designated purposes.

Endowment Effect

The endowment effect occurs when people value something more highly simply because they own it. For tokenomics, creating opportunities for users to feel ownership can increase attachment and perceived value. This can be done through mechanisms that reward users with tokens for participation or contribution, thus making them more reluctant to part with their holdings because they value them more highly.

Conclusion

By considering how behavioral factors influence market perception, token engineers can create much more effective ecosystems. Ensuring high demand for the token, means ensuring proper funding for the project in general.

If you're looking to create a robust tokenomics model and go through institutional-grade testing please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you with the token engineering process and ensure your project’s resilience in the long term.

FAQ

How does the initial supply of a token influence its market perception?

  • The initial supply sets the perceived value of a token; a larger supply might suggest a lower per-token value.

Why is the maximum supply important in token design?

  • A finite maximum supply signals scarcity, helping protect against inflation and enhance long-term value.

How do investors perceive inflation and deflation in cryptocurrencies?

  • Investors generally dislike deflationary tokens and view them as risky. Moderate inflation is seen neutrally or positively, while high inflation is not favored.