How blockchain assists the improvement of healthcare?

Maciej Zieliński

13 Apr 2023
How blockchain assists the improvement of healthcare?

Introduction

When you will find yourself in a hospital, the method at which your data is processed is the last thing you will be probably thinking about. However, it may be the key to your successful recovery. Why would the form of storing the data be so important and why does the blockchain seem to be the most optimal solution in this case? In this article we will dive into the topic of blockchain and healthcare, explain why is it important as well as show a real use case.

Why blockchain and healthcare?

The medical sciences are based on sheer facts and is fully dependent on them because their validity is a difference between the life and death of patients. The new medicine brought to the pharmacies, newly researched healing method or the project of a new tool wouldn’t be possible without a thorough analysis of hundreds of terabytes of data. We probably do not have to explain why is an accurate analysis of patients health and the information processed by the healthcare so necessary. The need to create and maintain massive databases with reliable and accessible information appears to maintain the proper flow of information between the experts and hospitals.

The key features of the usage of blockchain is the ability to protect the reliability of the data stored in its systems and to ease the flow of information between its systems. Thanks to that we reduce the human error margin and the risk of the loss or theft of data. This is why blockchain can prove to be revolutionary when it comes to aggregating data in the healthcare.

Blockchain in the medical e-documentation

In the last decades the need for the digitalization of medical documentation has increased significantly and has been requested by both doctors and patients around the world. Such a way of storage of data about the patients’ health, his medical referrals or the results of his testing makes them more accessible and eases the procedures that use them. After all the patient confronts many types of specialists on his road to health so any situation where  the medical history is inaccessible seems absurd.

Perhaps the main disadvantage of modern registries is the fact that they are scattered in between many facilities. The patients very often are forced to use many different medical services because of their life situations. Because of that, the data about their previous treatments is often lost or inaccessible. In Poland for example, many patients use both the private and the national healthcare which makes it difficult to control which of the EDM (electronic medical documentation system) systems would be used to allow the information to flow and so some doctors have difficulties with accessibility of data from his peers. Because the private medical facilities decide which EDM system they shall use independently, the communication between the different systems is usually lost. This translates into the lowered quality of decisions undertaken in reference to treatment and makes it difficult for the patient to access the documentation. Additionally when EDM is applied the data is often threatened by the audit, provenience and the loss of control.

Blockchain as a Solution

Solutions based on blockchain could potentially become a base for answering those issues. For example, MedRec system, tested by the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center uses the advantages shown by the blockchain to provide the users with confidentiality, integrity and an ability to easily verify data. Such a decentralised system of data gives its users an unchangeable medical documentation and allows for ease in accessing it in many situations.

An important trait of MedRec is the ability to let the patient be responsible for his own data. The system only holds a hash of the record of the medical documentation and informs the patient where the record should be held at. The hash allows for the record to be unchangeable and the users interface makes it sure that the medical documentation is consistent in between the medical facilities. This allows the record to be available for both the private and the national medical institutions as it is stored independently from them and is not limited to either.

A common trait between the blockchain based solutions like MedRec is the ability to exchange the medical data while there is a simultaneous confidentiality of the personal data. The first country which has discovered the potential behind this technology seems to be Estonia, where there was a first proposition of using the blockchain to maintain the EDM system.

Where shall we use the blockchain in the future?

In recent years, neurology of technological solutions had its fair deal of advancements. It has excited people around the world and left them hungering for more.  Its no surprise since the modern times strive towards less and less mechanical interaction with the infrastructure and the ability to control the facilities with the power of our own mind. Such neurological devices can interpret the patterns of brains activity and translate them into actual commands towards the external devices and interpret the psychological status of a person. However, in order to make such solutions work  we would need to digitalise the brain. Once again, blockchain can prove to become an indispensable tool to assist us in achieving that.

One of suggestions for such an implementation is storing the “thought files”, which would work like the compound elements of data of chains of personal thoughts which can be shared inside of a peer-to-peer system. This kind of blockchain thinking is proposed as a calculation system of processing the entering data with several functions that give the AI chance to integrate with the human brain.

Multicomponent verification which connects to the personal chain of thoughts as a blockchain implementation  can allow a safe cryptography of creation of joint numerical data for people. Such joint data reduce the number of silos of human data which also allows every human to keep their own private property and to share their own experience.  

Blockchain in Healthcare Use Case: Neurogress

One of the companies that confirmed their desire to use the blockchain technology to store the human brain activity data is Neurogress. Registered in Geneva and created in 2017, this company is keen on construction of neural control systems which will allow all of its users to control the machines, drones or AR/VR devices through the power of their mind. The Neuroregress system is focused on the usage of machine learning that is used in order to improve the ability to read the brains activity. Huge amounts of data about the neural activity is required to train the AI to use the system. The company defines the data with the usage of exabytes (1 exabyte = 1 billion gigabytes). Its no wonder the Neurogress will use blockchain as it allows the safety and privacy for data in large quantities.

Thanks to the ability to register the data of the user in decentralised blocks of chains is immune to manipulations and breaches. The system will allow the safety and confidentiality to its users because most of the suspicious activities are easily detectible. Simultaneously the usage of blockchain allows the Neurogress system to be open and accessible to its users.

Blockchain healthcare – the future of medical databases

The constant growth of medical sciences will bring much more data to process in the future. Quick processing of exchange between the facilities can become key in the improvement of the treatment process. Solutions which bring such a need will reduce the cost of procedures and the time needed to carry them out, they will reduce the usage of resources which are increasingly scarce. Additionally, the growing social awareness concerning the data and its protection will increase the need for the application of blockchain in the medical sector. As it offers an innovative look into the storage of data which assures its safety, reliability and quick exchange on the protocol level, it can become a solution that will let us both improve the existing methods and create newer, better ones.

Conclusion

To summarize, blockchain healthcare has the potential to transform the way patient data is stored and managed. Employing a secure, dependable, and decentralized approach for data aggregation, blockchain technology not only ensures patient privacy but also streamlines the exchange of information among hospitals and medical professionals. The MedRec system exemplifies this by empowering patients to control their data while preserving its confidentiality and consistency across various healthcare facilities. Moreover, applying blockchain technology to digitize brain data for neurological devices is another promising avenue being pursued by companies like Neurogress. In essence, blockchain healthcare offers promising solutions for data management and privacy concerns within the industry.

Want to know more about using the emerging technologies in medicine? Check out our article on AI in medice.

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Monte Carlo Simulations in Tokenomics

Kajetan Olas

01 May 2024
Monte Carlo Simulations in Tokenomics

As the web3 field grows in complexity, traditional analytical tools often fall short in capturing the dynamics of digital markets. This is where Monte Carlo simulations come into play, offering a mathematical technique to model systems fraught with uncertainty.

Monte Carlo simulations employ random sampling to understand probable outcomes in processes that are too complex for straightforward analytic solutions. By simulating thousands, or even millions, of scenarios, Monte Carlo methods can provide insights into the likelihood of different outcomes, helping stakeholders make informed decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

In this article, we will explore the role of Monte Carlo simulations within the context of tokenomics.  illustrating how they are employed to forecast market dynamics, assess risk, and optimize strategies in the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies. By integrating this powerful tool, businesses and investors can enhance their analytical capabilities, paving the way for more resilient and adaptable economic models in the digital age.

Understanding Monte Carlo Simulations

The Monte Carlo method is an approach to solving problems that involve random sampling to understand probable outcomes. This technique was first developed in the 1940s by scientists working on the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project. The method was designed to simplify the complex simulations of neutron diffusion, but it has since evolved to address a broad spectrum of problems across various fields including finance, engineering, and research.

Random Sampling and Statistical Experimentation

At the heart of Monte Carlo simulations is the concept of random sampling from a probability distribution to compute results. This method does not seek a singular precise answer but rather a probability distribution of possible outcomes. By performing a large number of trials with random variables, these simulations mimic the real-life fluctuations and uncertainties inherent in complex systems.

Role of Randomness and Probability Distributions in Simulations

Monte Carlo simulations leverage the power of probability distributions to model potential scenarios in processes where exact outcomes cannot be determined due to uncertainty. Each simulation iteration uses randomly generated values that follow a specific statistical distribution to model different outcomes. This method allows analysts to quantify and visualize the probability of different scenarios occurring.

The strength of Monte Carlo simulations lies in the insight they offer into potential risks. They allow modelers to see into the probabilistic "what-if" scenarios that more closely mimic real-world conditions.

Monte Carlo Simulations in Tokenomics

Monte Carlo simulations are instrumental tool for token engineers. They're so useful due to their ability to model emergent behaviors. Here are some key areas where these simulations are applied:

Pricing and Valuation of Tokens

Determining the value of a new token can be challenging due to the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets. Monte Carlo simulations help by modeling various market scenarios and price fluctuations over time, allowing analysts to estimate a token's potential future value under different conditions.

Assessing Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior

Cryptocurrency markets are influenced by a myriad of factors including regulatory changes, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment. Monte Carlo methods allow researchers to simulate these variables in an integrated environment to see how they might impact token economics, from overall market cap fluctuations to liquidity concerns.

Assesing Possible Risks

By running a large number of simulations it’s possible to stress-test the project in multiple scenarios and identify emergent risks. This is perhaps the most important function of Monte Carlo Process, since these risks can’t be assessed any other way.

Source: How to use Monte Carlo simulation for reliability analysis?

Benefits of Using Monte Carlo Simulations

By generating a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities, Monte Carlo simulations help decision-makers in the cryptocurrency space anticipate potential futures and make informed strategic choices. This capability is invaluable for planning token launches, managing supply mechanisms, and designing marketing strategies to optimize market penetration.

Using Monte Carlo simulations, stakeholders in the tokenomics field can not only understand and mitigate risks but also explore the potential impact of different strategic decisions. This predictive power supports more robust economic models and can lead to more stable and successful token launches. 

Implementing Monte Carlo Simulations

Several tools and software packages can facilitate the implementation of Monte Carlo simulations in tokenomics. One of the most notable is cadCAD, a Python library that provides a flexible and powerful environment for simulating complex systems. 

Overview of cadCAD configuration Components

To better understand how Monte Carlo simulations work in practice, let’s take a look at the cadCAD code snippet:

sim_config = {

    'T': range(200),  # number of timesteps

    'N': 3,           # number of Monte Carlo runs

    'M': params       # model parameters

}

Explanation of Simulation Configuration Components

T: Number of Time Steps

  • Definition: The 'T' parameter in CadCAD configurations specifies the number of time steps the simulation should execute. Each time step represents one iteration of the model, during which the system is updated. That update is based on various rules defined by token engineers in other parts of the code. For example: we might assume that one iteration = one day, and define data-based functions that predict token demand on that day.

N: Number of Monte Carlo Runs

  • Definition: The 'N' parameter sets the number of Monte Carlo runs. Each run represents a complete execution of the simulation from start to finish, using potentially different random seeds for each run. This is essential for capturing variability and understanding the distribution of possible outcomes. For example, we can acknowledge that token’s price will be correlated with the broad cryptocurrency market, which acts somewhat unpredictably.

M: Model Parameters

  • Definition: The 'M' key contains the model parameters, which are variables that influence system's behavior but do not change dynamically with each time step. These parameters can be constants or distributions that are used within the policy and update functions to model the external and internal factors affecting the system.

Importance of These Components

Together, these components define the skeleton of your Monte Carlo simulation in CadCAD. The combination of multiple time steps and Monte Carlo runs allows for a comprehensive exploration of the stochastic nature of the modeled system. By varying the number of timesteps (T) and runs (N), you can adjust the depth and breadth of the exploration, respectively. The parameters (M) provide the necessary context and ensure that each simulation is realistic.

Messy graph representing Monte Carlo simulation, source: Bitcoin Monte Carlo Simulation

Conclusion

Monte Carlo simulations represent a powerful analytical tool in the arsenal of token engineers. By leveraging the principles of statistics, these simulations provide deep insights into the complex dynamics of token-based systems. This method allows for a nuanced understanding of potential future scenarios and helps with making informed decisions.

We encourage all stakeholders in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space to consider implementing Monte Carlo simulations. The insights gained from such analytical techniques can lead to more effective and resilient economic models, paving the way for the sustainable growth and success of digital currencies.

If you're looking to create a robust tokenomics model and go through institutional-grade testing please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you with the token engineering process and ensure your project’s resilience in the long term.

FAQ

What is a Monte Carlo simulation in tokenomics context?

  • It's a mathematical method that uses random sampling to predict uncertain outcomes.

What are the benefits of using Monte Carlo simulations in tokenomics?

  • These simulations help foresee potential market scenarios, aiding in strategic planning and risk management for token launches.

Why are Monte Carlo simulations unique in cryptocurrency analysis?

  • They provide probabilistic outcomes rather than fixed predictions, effectively simulating real-world market variability and risk.

Behavioral Economics in Token Design

Kajetan Olas

22 Apr 2024
Behavioral Economics in Token Design

Behavioral economics is a field that explores the effects of psychological factors on economic decision-making. This branch of study is especially pertinent while designing a token since user perception can significantly impact a token's adoption.

We will delve into how token design choices, such as staking yields, token inflation, and lock-up periods, influence consumer behavior. Research studies reveal that the most significant factor for a token's attractiveness isn’t its functionality, but its past price performance. This underscores the impact of speculative factors. Tokens that have shown previous price increases are preferred over those with more beneficial economic features.

Understanding Behavioral Tokenomics

Understanding User Motivations

The design of a cryptocurrency token can significantly influence user behavior by leveraging common cognitive biases and decision-making processes. For instance, the concept of "scarcity" can create a perceived value increase, prompting users to buy or hold a token in anticipation of future gains. Similarly, "loss aversion," a foundational principle of behavioral economics, suggests that the pain of losing is psychologically more impactful than the pleasure of an equivalent gain. In token design, mechanisms that minimize perceived losses (e.g. anti-dumping measures) can encourage long-term holding.

Incentives and Rewards

Behavioral economics also provides insight into how incentives can be structured to maximize user participation. Cryptocurrencies often use tokens as a form of reward for various behaviors, including mining, staking, or participating in governance through voting. The way these rewards are framed and distributed can greatly affect their effectiveness. For example, offering tokens as rewards for achieving certain milestones can tap into the 'endowment effect,' where people ascribe more value to things simply because they own them.

Social Proof and Network Effects

Social proof, where individuals copy the behavior of others, plays a crucial role in the adoption of tokens. Tokens that are seen being used and promoted by influential figures within the community can quickly gain traction, as new users emulate successful investors. The network effect further amplifies this, where the value of a token increases as more people start using it. This can be seen in the rapid growth of tokens like Ethereum, where the broad adoption of its smart contract functionality created a snowball effect, attracting even more developers and users.

Token Utility and Behavioral Levers

The utility of a token—what it can be used for—is also crucial. Tokens designed to offer real-world applications beyond mere financial speculation can provide more stable value retention. Integrating behavioral economics into utility design involves creating tokens that not only serve practical purposes but also resonate on an emotional level with users, encouraging engagement and investment. For example, tokens that offer governance rights might appeal to users' desire for control and influence within a platform, encouraging them to hold rather than sell.

Understanding Behavioral Tokenomics

Intersection of Behavioral Economics and Tokenomics

Behavioral economics examines how psychological influences, various biases, and the way in which information is framed affect individual decisions. In tokenomics, these factors can significantly impact the success or failure of a cryptocurrency by influencing user behavior towards investment

Influence of Psychological Factors on Token Attraction

A recent study observed that the attractiveness of a token often hinges more on its historical price performance than on intrinsic benefits like yield returns or innovative economic models. This emphasizes the fact that the cryptocurrency sector is still young, and therefore subject to speculative behaviors

The Effect of Presentation and Context

Another interesting finding from the study is the impact of how tokens are presented. In scenarios where tokens are evaluated separately, the influence of their economic attributes on consumer decisions is minimal. However, when tokens are assessed side by side, these attributes become significantly more persuasive. This highlights the importance of context in economic decision-making—a core principle of behavioral economics. It’s easy to translate this into real-life example - just think about the concept of staking yields. When told that the yield on e.g. Cardano is 5% you might not think much of it. But, if you were simultaneously told that Anchor’s yield is 19%, then that 5% seems like a tragic deal.

Implications for Token Designers

The application of behavioral economics to the design of cryptocurrency tokens involves leveraging human psychology to encourage desired behaviors. Here are several core principles of behavioral economics and how they can be effectively utilized in token design:

Leveraging Price Performance

Studies show clearly: “price going up” tends to attract users more than most other token attributes. This finding implies that token designers need to focus on strategies that can showcase their economic effects in the form of price increases. This means that e.g. it would be more beneficial to conduct a buy-back program than to conduct an airdrop.

Scarcity and Perceived Value

Scarcity triggers a sense of urgency and increases perceived value. Cryptocurrency tokens can be designed to have a limited supply, mimicking the scarcity of resources like gold. This not only boosts the perceived rarity and value of the tokens but also drives demand due to the "fear of missing out" (FOMO). By setting a cap on the total number of tokens, developers can create a natural scarcity that may encourage early adoption and long-term holding.

Initial Supply Considerations

The initial supply represents the number of tokens that are available in circulation immediately following the token's launch. The chosen number can influence early market perceptions. For instance, a large initial supply might suggest a lower value per token, which could attract speculators. Data shows that tokens with low nominal value are highly volatile and generally underperform. Understanding how the initial supply can influence investor behavior is important for ensuring the token's stability.

Managing Maximum Supply and Inflation

A finite maximum supply can safeguard the token against inflation, potentially enhancing its value by ensuring scarcity. On the other hand, the inflation rate, which defines the pace at which new tokens are introduced, influences the token's value and user trust.

Investors in cryptocurrency markets show a notable aversion to deflationary tokenomics. Participants are less likely to invest in tokens with a deflationary framework, viewing them as riskier and potentially less profitable. Research suggests that while moderate inflation can be perceived neutrally or even positively, high inflation does not enhance attractiveness, and deflation is distinctly unfavorable.

Source: Behavioral Tokenomics: Consumer Perceptions of Cryptocurrency Token Design

These findings suggest that token designers should avoid high deflation rates, which could deter investment and user engagement. Instead, a balanced approach to inflation, avoiding extremes, appears to be preferred among cryptocurrency investors.

Loss Aversion

People tend to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains; this is known as loss aversion. In token design, this can be leveraged by introducing mechanisms that protect against losses, such as staking rewards that offer consistent returns or features that minimize price volatility. Additionally, creating tokens that users can "earn" through participation or contribution to the network can tap into this principle by making users feel they are safeguarding an investment or adding protective layers to their holdings.

Social Proof

Social proof is a powerful motivator in user adoption and engagement. When potential users see others adopting a token, especially influential figures or peers, they are more likely to perceive it as valuable and trustworthy. Integrating social proof into token marketing strategies, such as showcasing high-profile endorsements or community support, can significantly enhance user acquisition and retention.

Mental Accounting

Mental accounting involves how people categorize and treat money differently depending on its source or intended use. Tokens can be designed to encourage specific spending behaviors by being categorized for certain types of transactions—like tokens that are specifically for governance, others for staking, and others still for transaction fees. By distinguishing tokens in this way, users can more easily rationalize holding or spending them based on their designated purposes.

Endowment Effect

The endowment effect occurs when people value something more highly simply because they own it. For tokenomics, creating opportunities for users to feel ownership can increase attachment and perceived value. This can be done through mechanisms that reward users with tokens for participation or contribution, thus making them more reluctant to part with their holdings because they value them more highly.

Conclusion

By considering how behavioral factors influence market perception, token engineers can create much more effective ecosystems. Ensuring high demand for the token, means ensuring proper funding for the project in general.

If you're looking to create a robust tokenomics model and go through institutional-grade testing please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you with the token engineering process and ensure your project’s resilience in the long term.

FAQ

How does the initial supply of a token influence its market perception?

  • The initial supply sets the perceived value of a token; a larger supply might suggest a lower per-token value.

Why is the maximum supply important in token design?

  • A finite maximum supply signals scarcity, helping protect against inflation and enhance long-term value.

How do investors perceive inflation and deflation in cryptocurrencies?

  • Investors generally dislike deflationary tokens and view them as risky. Moderate inflation is seen neutrally or positively, while high inflation is not favored.